Much of the horrific explosion in the national debt—the deficit soared from $248 billion in 2006 to $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009—can be pinned on cyclical factors. When the economy goes in the tank, it creates a fiscal double whammy, gutting tax receipts and boosting demand for the usual (increasing unemployment benefits) and extraordinary (bailouts, stimulus) government spending programs. Spending rose 18 percent and revenue fell 16.6 percent in fiscal 2009—the worst decline since the 1930s. But as the financial system returned from the brink, banks paid back billions in TARP funds. In late July the Office of Management and Budget dialed back its estimate for the fiscal 2009 deficit from $1.84 trillion in May to $1.58 trillion. The stock-market rally, recovering corporate profits, and an expanding economy have translated into higher-than-expected tax receipts. And so, when the Treasury Department’s Financial Management Service closed the fiscal year in October, the final numbers came out better than expected: a $1.42 trillion deficit, $138 billion less than was forecast in July.