Nate Silver was right. It’s Argo: #Oscars2013 #BestPicture #NateSilverAlwaysWins
Between the pundits and the partisans, you’re dealing with a lot of very delusional people. And sports provides for much more frequent reality checks,” he wrote. “If you were touting how awesome Notre Dame was, for example, you got very much slapped back into reality last night. In politics, you can go on being delusional for years at a time.
Once again, Nate Silver nailed it.
President Obama on the online turkey pardon vote - @HuffPostPol
I can tell how quickly I’ve become a NYC sellout by how badly I’m rooting for LeBron to come here. OF COURSE he should come here! We’re #1!
Great people in Boston, but NYC is 5x larger and run 5x as well.
I think we have to seriously consider whether there is some sort of a Bradley Effect in the polling on gay rights issues, although one of the pollsters (PPP, which had a very bad night in NY-23) got it exactly right. As for the model, I think I’ll need to look whether the urban-rural divide is a significant factor in a state in addition to its religiosity: Maine is secular, but rural. At the end of the day, it may have been too much to ask of a state to vote to approve gay marriage in an election where gay marriage itself was the headline issue on the ballot. Although the enthusiasm gap is very probably narrowing, feelings about gay marriage have traditionally been much stronger on the right than the left, and that’s what gets people up off the couch in off-year elections.