Showing 168 posts tagged Polls

There is a lot of skepticism about Christie from conservative voters. Among those identifying as ‘very conservative’ 35% see him positively to 36% with a negative opinion. Christie’s overall net favorability of +12 at 41/29 ranks him 8th most popular out of the 9 Republicans we looked at, leading only Susana Martinez who is not yet well known on a national level.

Rubio leads the Republicans among conservatives, while Christie has the advantage with moderates. The problem for Christie is that only 19% of primary voters are moderates while 74% are conservatives.

Public Policy Polling

13% of voters think Barack Obama is the anti-Christ, including 22% of Romney voters.

4% of voters say they believe “lizard people” control our societies by gaining political power.

14% of voters believe in Bigfoot.

15% of voters say the government or the media adds mind-controlling technology to TV broadcast signals (the so-called Tinfoil Hat crowd).

37% of voters believe global warming is a hoax, 51% do not. Republicans say global warming is a hoax by a 58-25 margin, Democrats disagree 11-77, and Independents are more split at 41-51. 61% of Romney voters believe global warming is a hoax

Conspiracy Theory Poll Results - Public Policy Polling

[A] new study from Fairleigh Dickinson University suggests that so-called birthers are far more numerous than previously thought. Sixty four percent of Republicans polled by the university’s PublicMind project said that it was “probably true” that Obama is hiding details of his personal history, including possibly his birth place. Also polled were the conspiracy theories that the 9/11 attacks were an inside job (25 percent of all respondents said that was “probably true”), that President Bush stole the 2004 election (23 percent), and that Obama stole the 2012 election (20 percent).

Poll: 64 Percent of Republicans Are Birthers | BobCesca.com
election:

THE POLL DANCE: Nate Silver on Predicting Elections
Nate Silver turned a love of baseball into a breakout career in forecasting player performance, inventing his own statistical system for gaming the game. Then he turned his methodical eye on politics, shocking the media-polling industrial complex by correctly calling 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election. He’s now the house polling analyst for the New York Times, bringing a rigorous and gnomic level of intensity to his Five Thirty Eight blog. And his well-timed new book The Signal and the Noise comes out this week, attempting to unspool the science and art of trying and/or failing to predict the future of most anything. We talked with Silver about how the 2012 race looks so far, how it might all turn out, and how this could be the year when all the predictions (including his own) go very, very wrong.
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election:

THE POLL DANCE: Nate Silver on Predicting Elections

Nate Silver turned a love of baseball into a breakout career in forecasting player performance, inventing his own statistical system for gaming the game. Then he turned his methodical eye on politics, shocking the media-polling industrial complex by correctly calling 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election. He’s now the house polling analyst for the New York Times, bringing a rigorous and gnomic level of intensity to his Five Thirty Eight blog. And his well-timed new book The Signal and the Noise comes out this week, attempting to unspool the science and art of trying and/or failing to predict the future of most anything. We talked with Silver about how the 2012 race looks so far, how it might all turn out, and how this could be the year when all the predictions (including his own) go very, very wrong.

Read More

(via sarahlee310)

As I observed on Tuesday, and as The New Republic’s Nate Cohn also found, Barack Obama seems to have received a much clearer bounce in some types of polls than others.

Although there are exceptions on either side, like the Gallup national tracking poll, for the most part Mr. Obama seems to be getting stronger results in polls that use live interviewers and that include cellphones in their samples — enough to suggest that he has a clear advantage in the race.

Nate Silver, Obama’s Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones - NYTimes
  • The New York Times